Wednesday, October 31, 2007

End-October 2007 Portfolio Review

During the half-month ended October 31, 2007, Ezra Holdings released its FY 2007 results on October 16, 2007. The results were mostly in line with expectations and I have done a review of Ezra’s financials in my previous few posts. In addition, Suntec REIT has also announced its FY 2007 results and declared its quarterly dividend distribution. The market continues to bob at a relatively high level, giving me no chances to buy at a decent margin of safety. Thus, I am patiently waiting for my chance to buy while surveying and analyzing companies at the same time.

Below is the summary of my investments and related news as at October 31, 2007 (STI at 3,805.70 points):-

1) Ezra (Vested since October 6, 2005) - Buy Price $1.30 (bonus adjusted), Market Price $6.90, Gain 431%. On October 16, 2007, Ezra announced their FY 2007 financials and announced a dividend of 7.1 cents per share (3.55 cents per share post-bonus), giving me a dividend yield of 5.5% based on my buy price. At the same time, Ezra has also announced that Saigon Shipyard has won US$130 worth of contracts for fabrication projects, to be completed by FY 2010. On October 29, 2007, they announced that their 100%-owned subsidiary, Lewek Shipping Pte Ltd, has contracted to purchase a second MFSV from Karmsund at a cost if S$167.4 million. The counter is currently on cum-bonus for the 1:1 bonus announced on April 9, 2007 and the ex-bonus date is next Monday, November 5, 2007.

2) Boustead (Vested since September 13, 2006; averaged down November 13, 2006) - Buy Price $1.295 (average), Market Price $2.42, Gain 86.9%. There was no news from Boustead in the half-month ended October 31, 2007. Boustead is expected to report their 1H FY 2008 results some time in November, after which I will be doing an analysis and review.

3) Swiber (Vested since February 14, 2007) - Buy Price $1.01, Market Price $3.66, Gain 262.4%. There was no news from Swiber during the half month ended October 31, 2007. Their 3Q 2007 results announcement is expected during the middle of November 2007, and I will be keeping an eye on their 3Q margins as well as their cash flow usage, as well as looking out for further updates from the company on its plans and strategies for FY 2008.

4) Suntec REIT (Vested since December 9, 2004) - Buy Price $1.11, Market Price $1.81, Gain 63.1%. Suntec REIT announced their financial results for FY 2007 (their year-end is on September 30) and declared a DPU of 2.122 cents per share to be paid on November 28, 2007. For the entire financial year FY 2007, the total dividend declared amounted to 8.15 cents per share, which represents a dividend yield of 7.34% based on my purchase price. Moving forward, the REIT expects to increase its DPU further through its acquisition of a one-third stake in One Raffles Quay; as rental rates for office and retail space continue their upward trend.

5) Pacific Andes (Vested since March 29, 2006; Rights Issue July 11, 2007 at S$0.52 per share; averaged down August 17, 2007) - Buy Price $0.655 (rights-adjusted), Market Price $0.81, Gain 23.7%. There were no updates or news releases from CFG or PAH during the half-month ended October 31, 2007. PAH should be releasing their 1H FY 2008 results some time in mid to late November 2007. This is the first quarter in which they will account for their recently acquired 63.9% stake in CFG (increased from 28.8%) and I am hoping the earnings accretion is enough to offset the dilutive impact of the rights issue. I am also hoping for a decent dividend to be paid out.

Overall Portfolio

My overall portfolio has increased by 143.0% from an adjusted cost of S$43.2K as at October 31, 2007, as compared with 146.9% as at October 15, 2007. The market value of my portfolio is S$105K. Realized gains remain at S$3.9K as the recently declared dividends have not been received yet.

Comparison against STI

The STI was 3,037.74 on January 3, 2007. It is currently at 3,805.70 today, representing a gain of 25.3%.

Adjustment of cost to ensure consistency of comparison – My cost and market value were S$33.9K and S$46.0K respectively as at Jan 3, 2007 while my current adjusted cost (after selling Global Voice) is about S$43.2K. My adjusted market value will be about S$58.6K. The market value of my holdings as at today is S$105K. This represents an increase of about 79.2%.

Thus, as at October 31, 2007, my portfolio has risen by a gain of 53.9 percentage points higher than the STI.

My next portfolio review will be on Thursday, November 15, 2007 after market close.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

MW,

Keep up the good work. You make me want to go value ;-)

Well for me, I have 2 accounts - 1 trading and 1 investment. My trading account (CPF Money) is to trade support and resistance and now it is close to triple digit gains.

But it is a smaller account currently at 45K. Usually a smaller account is supposed to outdo a larger account

My much larger investment account returns is about 83%. It should have grossed triple digit gains if not for 2 investment mistakes that I made which cost me dearly. Sigh... What to do? Singapore market sucks. THe BBs know the bad news before it is released to the public and they bailed out earlier that day before the news is being reported to public after market close. So much so for corporate governance in Singapore and level playing field. That is why I am utterly and completely disappointed with Singapore market this year and will move 3/4 of my money back to US stocks where insider trading is not allowed and will be checked.


Keep up the good work and perhaps we can meet some day.

Regards,
MM

la papillion said...

Hi musicwhiz, Swiber announced today that their results would be out on 14th Nov, during lunchtime break.

Congrats on your portfolio results, very impressive :)

musicwhiz said...

Hi MM,

Thanks for sharing with regards to your trading and investing experience. You have a good day too !

Regards, Musicwhiz

musicwhiz said...

Hello la papillion,

Yes, thanks I noted that Swiber will release on Nov 14 during lunch, though sometimes it comes out early in the morning before I go to work ! :)

Also, thanks for the compliment, but I believe the current bull market has contributed to the portfolio's performance as well. It takes a bear market to really judge if a portfolio can "weather the storm" properly, I think.

Regards, Musicwhiz

fishman said...

Hi Musicwhiz,

Nice portfolio! Impressive returns!!

I'm totally tied by marriage preps. Even if there's extra cash, won't know which to buy...yet!

Btw a random question, which forum do you frequent? Don't seem to see you in Wall Straits.

cheers!
fishman

musicwhiz said...

Hello fishman,

Thanks for dropping by once again. Thanks too for the compliment but I always feel that the bull run has partly contributed to such gains, thus I will be satisfied if my portfolio can gain 20-30% consistently over time.

I frequent Wallstraits (seldom post, just read, but I do like to chat with Dennis Ng), CNA forum, SI forum and SJ forums.

Cheers, Musicwhiz

musicwhiz said...

Hi there,

The market value is simply the value of my shareholdings as at a certain date. This is taken as no. of shares I own in company A multiplied by the closing market price of the company on that day. In this case, on Oct 31, the market value of all my holdings is S$105K, but of course this figure fluctuates daily depending on Mr. Market's moods.

Hope this clears things up. If not, please feel free to clarify further.

Regards, Musicwhiz

Anonymous said...

Hi MW, don't quite understand how you arrived at your mkt value, isn't this the value of your portforlio as reflected by the stock mkt itself?

ym said...

Russia to dole out 10-year fishing quotas
- Intrafish.com news 2-11-2007
http://www.intrafish.no/global/latest100/?news=news

I cannot read the details, any impact to Chian Fishery?
If you can read, please tell me.
Thanks!

musicwhiz said...

Hi ym,

Checked out the link but did not find anything on Russian fishing quotas. Maybe you can explain how it might impact CFG and hence PAH ?

Thanks, Musicwhiz

ym said...

I can read after I registered as a 2 week free member.

You can search by input the headline after registration as a 2 week free member.
THE CURRENT quotas for CF will be expired end 2008. It is important for Russian fishing company (eg. Perun ) to get the quota

ym

musicwhiz said...

Hi ym,

Will check it out soon, thanks. Been really busy these few weeks and also have results to analyze for the companies I own.

Have a good week,

Musicwhiz