Saturday, September 15, 2007

Mid-September 2007 Portfolio Review

There was quite a bit of news regarding my investments during the half-month ended September 14, 2007. As I was away on a business trip and am only just back in Singapore, I have not really had time to analyze developments in Swiber, Boustead and Global Voice during the last few days. I will be summarizing the developments in my portfolio review, while the detailed analysis will come in later posts. I guess September 11, 2007 managed to come and go without much incident, therefore there was not much to “rock” financial markets to create windows of opportunity to increase stakes in fine companies. But I am willing to wait !

Below is the summary of my investments and related news as at September 14, 2007 (STI at 3,536.40 points):-

1) Ezra (Vested since October 6, 2005) - Buy Price $1.30 (bonus adjusted), Market Price $6.30, gain 385%. On September 10, 2007, Ezra announced more details of the listing of EOC. It will place out 44.5 million EOC shares to institutional fund managers in order to raise up to a maximum of S$282 million. The book building period will end on September 19, after which I would expect another update from the company on the status of the listing and the exact amount of cash raised. The FY 2007 results can be expected in late October (as per FY 2006) as I think the company has got quite a bit to handle during September 2007.

2) Boustead (Vested since September 13, 2006; averaged down November 13, 2006) - Buy Price $1.295 (average), Market Price $2.33, gain 80.0%. On September 13, 2007, Boustead Projects announced the disposal of a warehousing facility at 40 Changi North Crescent in Singapore. The consideration for this deal is S$12.39 million (which will add to their cash hoard) and the gain on disposal recognized in the Income Statement amounts to S$6.07 million. This amount is already more than 50% of their 1H FY 2007 of S$9.61 million, and Boustead is set to achieve another record year as it focuses on its core competencies and leverages on its strengths.

3) Swiber (Vested since February 14, 2007) - Buy Price $1.01, Market Price $2.97, gain 194%. There are many updates for Swiber in just half a month: On September 4, Swiber announced a second wave of sale-and-leaseback transactions for 5 more vessels (also with R.S. Platou) in order to free up more cash and maintain an asset-light balance sheet. On September 6, they announced the purchase of a derrick crane for US$53.13 million to be delivered in 3Q FY 2009. This will add to their existing fleet capabilities and allow for more complex job handling. On September 13, Swiber announced the appointment of Mr. Joseph Chen Hin Tin as vice-president of its Brunei operations in order to spearhead growth in that market. Subsequently, the following day Swiber also announced a joint-venture (51:49) with Rahaman Sendirian Berhad to explore further opportunities in the country. The JV allows Swiber to bid for projects in the oil and gas industry which were previously only for domestic companies, thus it increases their competitive edge and the chances of getting more contracts within Brunei.

4) Global Voice (Vested since November 23, 2005; averaged down January 25, 2006) - Buy Price $0.1775 (average), Market Price $0.17, loss 4.2%. On September 5, GV extended their contract with AMS-IX while on September 11, 2007, GV announced that they have deployed a solution for Picturemaxx. Details can be found on the company’s website and the announcements are, as usual, pretty technical.

5) Suntec REIT (Vested since December 9, 2004) - Buy Price $1.11, Market Price $1.89, gain 70.3%. There were several announcements from Suntec which related to the acquisition of One Raffles Quay and the REIT mentioned that they have in-principle approval to issue new units to Cheung Kong (held by tycoon Li Ka-Shing) to partially fund the acquisition. Also, there will be an issue of convertible bonds to finance the remainder of the acquisition and a circular will be sent out shortly to shareholders.

6) Pacific Andes (Vested since March 29, 2006; Rights Issue July 11, 207 at S$0.52 per share; averaged down August 17, 2007) - Buy Price $0.665 (rights-adjusted), Market Price $0.725, gain 10.7%. There was no news from the company during the half-month ended September 14, 2007.

Overall Portfolio

My overall portfolio has increased by 107% from a new cost of S$46.8K as at September 14, 2007. The market value of my portfolio is around S$96.9K and unrealized gains total S$50.1K. The increase in my portfolio value from August 31, 2007 is about 1.44% or S$1.4K. Realized gains remain at S$4.2K in the absence of further dividends. For this month, I am not expecting too many corporate developments though Swiber’s seemingly never-ending “stream” of news and updates has over-whelmed me (though I sound like I am complaining, I am in actual fact very pleased with the direction the company is taking to build their business). Hopefully, I can also expect more positive developments from Ezra and Boustead till end-September as they try to build up their respective businesses as well.

My next portfolio review will be on Friday, September 28, 2007 (last trading day for September 2007) after market close.


Simon said...

Hi guys,

I was reading the businesstimes article and it mentioned something about return on invested capital. Could someone tell me how do you actually compute such a ratio?


musicwhiz said...

Hi Simon,

I believe it would be similar to the formula for ROE (i.e. return on equity). You take net profit after tax divided by total equity in the balance sheet.

Regards, musicwhiz

Anonymous said...

Hiya musicwhiz

In your portfolio review end of this month, could you make some recommendations on stocks with potential to become blue chip one day? I'm not a nimble invester and would prefer something for long term. All the blues are very highly priced now.

Thank you.

musicwhiz said...

Hi there Anonymous,

I am not into recommending shares of companies, actually. I would much prefer if one could do their own research based on value investment techniques and learn to come up with your own list of good companies to invest in. In other words, I would rather teach you how to fish rather than do the fishing for you. No offense, this will help you in the long-term in case you have the funds to buy more companies with a margin of safety.

I do not know of any potential blue chip companies. A lot depends on the dynamics of the business, industry and Management; thus one has to be aware of what's happening and tune in to business news frequently to assess the health and quality of businesses. It's a tough job but very rewarding once you get it right. Current blue chips are stable but as you said, not cheap anymore.

Growth and value investing are joined at the hip; try to find a company with good economic moat, strong earnings, visible growth and has amanagement which is honest and transparent; and you have won half the battle.

Good luck !

Cheers, musicwhiz