tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post8255794114996719209..comments2023-10-12T21:12:41.408+08:00Comments on Value Investment - Musicwhiz's Journey: Musicwhizhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-62517927229208306132009-01-16T20:43:00.000+08:002009-01-16T20:43:00.000+08:00Hi Blackcat,Thanks, very relevant points you broug...Hi Blackcat,<BR/><BR/>Thanks, very relevant points you brought up, let me address them in turn.<BR/><BR/>One, yes you are right for cyclical companies. Of the companies I listed, I would say Tat Hong is pretty cyclical as they are more or less pegged to the construction cycle, though they are modifying their business model to do more rentals instead of equipment sales. As long as their cash flow is sound, I have no worries.<BR/><BR/>Two, yes apparently Mr. Market can get amazingly depressive ! These are opportunities for investors to purchase shares of sound companies for long-term wealth.<BR/><BR/>Three, yes I also agree 100% with this. The time to purchase stocks is when they are unpopular and no one is inerested. You cannot buy what is popular and expect to do well as it may very well be over-valued, and over-hyped. I recall Cosco at S$8.00, was it really worth that much in terms of value that people will pay such a high PER ?<BR/><BR/>Hope you can come to a decision soon on whether you want to purchase or not ! I think valuations have become even more compelling in the recent January 2009 sell-down.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-39133198148060045872009-01-16T20:31:00.000+08:002009-01-16T20:31:00.000+08:00Hi Ricky,I have taken your advice and turned off A...Hi Ricky,<BR/><BR/>I have taken your advice and turned off Anonymous comments, most of which add no value whatsoever and include people trying to take a pot shot at me (for whatever reasons).<BR/><BR/>Initially, I was hopeful that this world would contain people who are less malicious and spiteful, but apparently I was sadly mistaken.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-30418642214274195692009-01-16T20:30:00.000+08:002009-01-16T20:30:00.000+08:00Hi Brenden Lee,I am sorry but stock competitions d...Hi Brenden Lee,<BR/><BR/>I am sorry but stock competitions do not factor very highly in my assessment of one's investing ability as they are under controlled conditions and their time horizon is usually too short to determine if one can obtain a decent return. 3 to 5 years is the minimum period of time required for an investor to generate decent returns.<BR/><BR/>As for your comments and remarks so far, they all point to you being very averse to equity investing and promoting your forex trading, despite all that you claim.<BR/><BR/>My advice to you would be to contibute constructively to the post by commenting, instead of doing self-promotion.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-60383971931118422102009-01-15T02:46:00.000+08:002009-01-15T02:46:00.000+08:00Great job! BlackCat and Brendan.These people know ...Great job! BlackCat and Brendan.<BR/>These people know more about value than Mr Market Whiz.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-2112080288354984562009-01-14T00:34:00.000+08:002009-01-14T00:34:00.000+08:00Conclusion: Keep away from stocks.Conclusion: Keep away from stocks.Financial Journalisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06490416137194206916noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-38094359047339913622009-01-11T11:34:00.000+08:002009-01-11T11:34:00.000+08:00Hi MusicWhiz, If I may go back to the topic of val...Hi MusicWhiz, <BR/><BR/>If I may go back to the topic of valuations and PEs, 3 things are in my mind: <BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>First:<BR/>For traditional cyclical industries (eg: airlines, shipping, oil rig operator, steel), trough PEs are often high and peak PEs are low, as the market often correctly predicts the cycle. From Peter Lynch in 'One up on wall St'. Not sure if the companies you listed are cyclical? (I dont follow them).<BR/><BR/><BR/>Second: (unrelated to the first point)<BR/><BR/>In a bear market, valuations can truly , unbelievably, ridiculously low! In 2001/02, the trough valuations of many good, well run, small/mid caps was 7 or 8. Examples are comfort, Robinsons, unisteel in my previous blog post:<BR/>http://profithunting.blogspot.com/2008/10/how-low-can-market-go.html<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>Third:<BR/><BR/>*Expectations* of earnings works both ways.<BR/><BR/>I think the best time to buy based on PEs is when past earnings have been compressed (usually by a recession) and the earnings are increasing, due to the recovery, and due to the intrinsic growth of your carefully analysed company. In 2001/02, you could often see PE *expansion*, as the company grew and analysts get more and more excited over it as time goes by, it gets 're-rated' with a higher PE. Examples were OSIM, unisteel.<BR/><BR/>Now we are seeing the opposite: PE contraction.<BR/><BR/>Agree that the best time to purchase is a bear market. But right now, compared to what I saw in 2001/02, I believe stocks are still too expensive after the (mini) rally in Dec. And I cant see the conditions in place for PE expansion. Personally I cant decide what to do... neither here nor there. :(<BR/><BR/>Regards<BR/> BlackCatAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-35889715750995746842009-01-10T21:09:00.000+08:002009-01-10T21:09:00.000+08:00Hi MW,perhaps you'll like to toggle the option of ...Hi MW,<BR/><BR/>perhaps you'll like to toggle the option of disallowing Anonymous comments. May not stop the unconstructive comments but at least there's a nick to refer to.Rickyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18410941051849870875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-43441267287498271502009-01-10T19:19:00.000+08:002009-01-10T19:19:00.000+08:00Hi MW,I did not make negative statement because I ...Hi MW,<BR/><BR/>I did not make negative statement because I am a currency trader. As a matter of fact I am a solid stock investor. <BR/><BR/>In 2007, I had participated in a 1 year stock-pick competition organized by Zacks.com in America. <BR/><BR/>At the end of the competition, I was ranked 407th out of 27,700 participants, hence this makes me top 1.47% of the competition. <BR/><BR/>I had achieved 32.67% return on the competition portfolio, for the same period S&P was only up 6.99%, and Dow Jones was only up 4.16%, hence I had outperformed the broad market by a wide margin.<BR/><BR/>But since stock market is not going to do well, I had switched to currency trading in my career.<BR/><BR/>Regards<BR/>Brendan<BR/>http://www.forexandbinary.com/Financial Journalisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06490416137194206916noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-12106251442308530752009-01-10T11:47:00.000+08:002009-01-10T11:47:00.000+08:00Hi Patrick Ho,That's a good idea, and sounds like ...Hi Patrick Ho,<BR/><BR/>That's a good idea, and sounds like something I am willing to adopt for myself as well as time goes by. All part of fine-tuning our investment process to make sure it gets better over time, and to learn from mistakes.<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-39652224270990128382009-01-09T21:47:00.000+08:002009-01-09T21:47:00.000+08:00Hi MW, anyhow, I believe that it's fine to v...Hi MW, <BR/> anyhow, I believe that it's fine to value the company acordingly, and to adjust the valuations of the company from time to time, as the intrinsic value of a company changes all the time. I'm not too sure whether this might work or not, but am willing to try things out.<BR/><BR/> Cheers, don't be affected by cynical remarks:)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-11811875536554710112009-01-09T15:24:00.000+08:002009-01-09T15:24:00.000+08:00Dear Anonymous January 9, 2009 1:44 PMPlease lah.....Dear Anonymous January 9, 2009 1:44 PM<BR/><BR/>Please lah... If you want to comment at least leave a nick that we can refer to... Your comments are totally typical internet troll behaviour. You mean YOU DON'T HAVE AN EGO?!<BR/><BR/>Puh-lease... everyone has an ego, it's either big, medium or small.<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure what did Musicwhiz do to you in his past life to make you so critical. Why do you seem to hate him so?<BR/><BR/>Be well and prosper.PanzerGrenadierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15836438378215893219noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-56656264095746390432009-01-09T14:17:00.000+08:002009-01-09T14:17:00.000+08:00Hmm Anonymous again,I just find it strange that mo...Hmm Anonymous again,<BR/><BR/>I just find it strange that most of the negative comments are from "Anonymous". It would certainly be nice if you could leave a nick so I can at least respond, instead of being a faceless criticizer.<BR/><BR/>I think the problem with your comment is that it is so unspecific ! Everyone has an ego (name me people who don't, unless they suffer fro depression), and I would also think that in order to analyze financials one has to use some of the jargon which goes along with financial statements. If you think crowd behaviour is so important then you can jolly well join the crowd; but I dare not guarantee you will get results which will please you.<BR/><BR/>And if you feel I do not understand what value investing is about, you should also be more specific and define what it IS about, right ? It's easy to criticize and point fingers but much harder to provide evidence to support your criticisms. If you think you are an expert in value investing or WB, please do share your insights and profound wisdom so that everyone can benefit from it in this comments box.<BR/><BR/>Otherwise, if you do not like my blog, just avoid visiting it in future.<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-90193033372645010912009-01-09T14:11:00.000+08:002009-01-09T14:11:00.000+08:00Hi Brenden Lee,Of course you are entitled to your ...Hi Brenden Lee,<BR/><BR/>Of course you are entitled to your opinion about equities, since I am aware you are a currency trader. However, I am staying vested in equities for the long run as I believe they can help me overcome inflation and give me a decent return on investment.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-77202274078996419802009-01-09T14:10:00.000+08:002009-01-09T14:10:00.000+08:00Hi Patrick Ho,Yep I think it's good to factor in e...Hi Patrick Ho,<BR/><BR/>Yep I think it's good to factor in earnings disappointments when we think of investing in a company. This will temper expectations and prevent us from experiencing negative surprises.<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-14694416644873462852009-01-09T13:44:00.000+08:002009-01-09T13:44:00.000+08:00Although you sound impressive citing items from fi...Although you sound impressive citing items from financial statements and speaking like Buffett (Mr Market etc etc.. haha..)<BR/><BR/>However, you have a problem. You have an EGO. Not admitting people is right when they are. Putting on a brave front in front of people who gives you reasons not to go against crowd behaviour in investing.<BR/><BR/>From reading some of your blog post on companies, I noticed that you do not understand what value investing is about. <BR/><BR/>Please go read up more instead of thinking you are Buffett when you read only some books written by people who claim they know how Buffett invest.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-73600300997792399682009-01-09T10:46:00.000+08:002009-01-09T10:46:00.000+08:00I think we should avoid stocks altogether. Stock i...I think we should avoid stocks altogether. Stock investment is simply too risky in current economy environment.Financial Journalisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06490416137194206916noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-41616710326431228282009-01-09T00:27:00.000+08:002009-01-09T00:27:00.000+08:00Hi MW, was trying to think about valuations, ...Hi MW,<BR/> was trying to think about valuations, and I believe it's a little tricky to base valuations on trailing PER as the 'E' part isn't exactly v reliable.<BR/> <BR/> I do also think that factoring in an earnings drop/rise based on historical figures might be good? Not about chasing up earnings. Would pay to find out what the price behind a stock reflects. That's why MOS works so well:)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-8058168885884700822009-01-07T22:51:00.000+08:002009-01-07T22:51:00.000+08:00Hi Panzer,Yes thanks for your comments, and I agre...Hi Panzer,<BR/><BR/>Yes thanks for your comments, and I agree with them.<BR/><BR/>Will email you in a few days time as I am currently very tied up with personal matters. Thanks for your good offer to help maximize my monetization.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-29819306051501353102009-01-07T11:25:00.000+08:002009-01-07T11:25:00.000+08:00Hi MusicwhizStock valuation is as much an art as s...Hi Musicwhiz<BR/><BR/>Stock valuation is as much an art as some see it as a science.<BR/><BR/>I'd like to think it reflects the market participants expectations of the future coupled with their hopes, fears and greed all mixed up and reflected through the transacted prices.<BR/><BR/>Ultimately, no-one can second guess the market all the time but enough trends up and down do make some traders richer (and others poorer).<BR/><BR/>I have a proposal to you help monetise your blog better. Would you be open to listen to it?<BR/><BR/>If you are, please email me at rod.loh at gmail.com and we can take it offline. <BR/><BR/>No obligations. <BR/><BR/>Be well and prosper.PanzerGrenadierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15836438378215893219noreply@blogger.com