tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post819112828404320490..comments2023-10-12T21:12:41.408+08:00Comments on Value Investment - Musicwhiz's Journey: Musicwhizhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-62102331015009016062007-11-14T20:46:00.000+08:002007-11-14T20:46:00.000+08:00Hi charlesming,Yes, margin of safety is the buffer...Hi charlesming,<BR/><BR/>Yes, margin of safety is the buffer which value investors require in order to make an investment. This prevents large losses and limits the damage should our analysis be wrong.<BR/><BR/>Regards, MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-16923443977916428862007-11-14T20:32:00.000+08:002007-11-14T20:32:00.000+08:00Yes.. if got margin of safety. Some people happen ...Yes.. if got margin of safety. Some people happen to buy at high prices. ie, more downside risks than upside hence more risky than in your case. Diff strategy for diff things :P<BR/><BR/>--charlesmingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-2990757189804707452007-11-12T23:13:00.000+08:002007-11-12T23:13:00.000+08:00Hello MM,That's a good write-up on Wallstraits, an...Hello MM,<BR/><BR/>That's a good write-up on Wallstraits, and I must applaud you for your intelligent insights and analysis to determine the change in market trend, as I am usually very bad at such things !<BR/><BR/>The decision to be in 100% cash though, is a personal one and I do not fully agree with it. I would prefer to stay vested through the "turbulence" as my margin of safety should prevent any serious losses. I also maintain an opportunity fund as recommended by Dennis Ng to be ready to capture good opportunities to buy cheap when the market corrects severely or crashes.<BR/><BR/>Yes, I have heard of the CANSLIM model which incorporates FA and TA. However, I am still more comfortable with the focused (value) investing techniques.<BR/><BR/>Regards, MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-30500224521959497152007-11-12T23:08:00.000+08:002007-11-12T23:08:00.000+08:00Hi charlesming,I think people in the USA (those af...Hi charlesming,<BR/><BR/>I think people in the USA (those affected by the sub-prime mortgage crunch) would be more wary of spending wantonly, especially when they are hard pressed to keep up with mortgage payments. The extent of this problem is not known though until a survey is conducted on consumers' spending habits, and it will take some time to permeate throughout USA as this is only the beginning.<BR/><BR/>My personal strategy is to stay vested throughout the turbulence, as I do not think my companies will be affected by the current troubles; or even if they are, I already have a margin of safety to prevent me from large losses. But I know some people's strategy involves parking some money in bonds or treasury bills. To each his own, and there is no right or wrong.<BR/><BR/>Regards, MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-50628960039504278942007-11-11T19:51:00.000+08:002007-11-11T19:51:00.000+08:00MW,Nice piece. Not sure if you have visited the Wa...MW,<BR/><BR/>Nice piece. Not sure if you have visited the Wallstraits where I posted on Friday night b4 the market opened that the US indices has just gone into a correction, ie., the uptrend is broken. <BR/><BR/>The US market has gone into a correction on Thursday, when the leading stocks broke down on huge selling volume. Leading stocks like Google, Baidu, Dry Ships, Diana Shipping all came down hard. <BR/><BR/>The leading US index, Nasdaq, sliced thro' its 50day moving day average on huge volume, signifying institution selling. <BR/><BR/>Unless Singapore market can decouple from US market, this might be a time to be prudent on investments on Singapore stocks. It might be prudent to go back in cash. I have just gone back into cash today. <BR/><BR/>This is not a buy or sell recommendation. Just to let you know that market trend has changed in the US. <BR/><BR/>Market trend reversals are most difficult to catch for the layman investors. Unfortunately, our investing public has been brainwashed that it is not possible to time the market. <BR/><BR/>The US market dropped much more on Friday night. <BR/><BR/>This is part of the discipline of the CANSLIM model I have talked about before. <BR/><BR/>I hope if my posting can help some people take some money off the table or at the very least, avoid serious losses, that would be worth it. <BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MMAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-70969577901593071452007-11-11T13:50:00.000+08:002007-11-11T13:50:00.000+08:00Good write up!The points you mention are 3/5 sugge...Good write up!<BR/><BR/>The points you mention are 3/5 suggested warning signs to a stock market crash too. I read bout that some months back. Another indicator is consumer spending in the US. Are people spending?<BR/><BR/>What would your personal strategy be now? Liquidate funds that have been doing well (profit take)? Move funds to defensive stocks like singpost?<BR/><BR/>There is no one perfect strategy (depending how you look at it, liquidating where cash is king could be good), but interested to discuss investor's strategies at the moment. Bond yields have been falling in the US, suggesting people are taking money out of stocks and into bonds, seen as a 'safer heaven'.<BR/><BR/>--charlesmingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-88759437339203039802007-11-11T09:08:00.000+08:002007-11-11T09:08:00.000+08:00Hi fishman,Thanks for dropping by so early. Yes, y...Hi fishman,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for dropping by so early. Yes, you are right in that pessimism produces prices which are advantageous to the value investor; however, one must also take a close look at the company to see if the factors I mentioned affect its operations and profitability. One cannot turn a blind eye to economic events and assume they do not affect the companies we own.<BR/><BR/>Haha, well you can start building up your "war chest" so that you can make use of opportunities in a market correction or crash. Good luck !<BR/><BR/>Regards, MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-58848968829103008132007-11-11T08:49:00.000+08:002007-11-11T08:49:00.000+08:00Hi Musicwhiz,For value investors, such "gloomy" ti...Hi Musicwhiz,<BR/><BR/>For value investors, such "gloomy" tidings might not be so bad after all. Think of it as Great Stock Pre-Sale? Issue is in identifying great companies that can weather the storm. Hai too bad I'm short of cash. Don't think got chance to take put in the coming sale again!<BR/><BR/>Have a great sunday!<BR/>fishmansm@ll.fryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03751757859835343020noreply@blogger.com