tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post6326643131768616948..comments2023-10-12T21:12:41.408+08:00Comments on Value Investment - Musicwhiz's Journey: Musicwhizhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comBlogger87125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-86689876303223671052008-10-27T14:30:00.000+08:002008-10-27T14:30:00.000+08:00Hello Whizkid!Am glad that you are being objective...Hello Whizkid!<BR/>Am glad that you are being objective by reviewing the companies u bought. By the way, we share and like your opinion mostly. We are not sure whether you have been buying your shares along the way as they come tumbling down, but if u did, it will probably mean a lot of capital involved and some paper loss now. It would be a different scenario if we understand the trendline of the market and ask ourself : "What is the market telling us?". We read a strategy of selling a share when it falls below 8% of your value. This way, we can afford to be twice wrong to have a right.We also like a few companies which you are investing and we just want to share with you on the 8% loss rule, so that we can accumulate more of them in this way, Ha!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-71231348855324964292008-10-27T02:04:00.000+08:002008-10-27T02:04:00.000+08:00Hi valueinvestor wannabe,You are right to point ou...Hi valueinvestor wannabe,<BR/><BR/>You are right to point out about oil. Goldman Sachs was shooting itself in its foot when it reversed its prediction of US$200 oil and changed it to a mere US$50 by year-end. That shows how good these analysts and "experts" are at predicting stuff. I still remember UOB sent me a brochure for commodity funds when prices were sky-high, touting many more years of fantastic returns. I smelt a rat and did not invest. Usually, when everyone else jumps onto the bandwagon, that's when the bubble will burst. As WB said, you can't buy what's popular and make money !<BR/><BR/>I thank this bear market for giving me the chance to purchase a larger stake in the companies I had a stake in already, at very reasonable prices ! The companies I own have fallen out of favour now, which is why I can buy them cheaply. I avoided increasing my stake at much higher prices as the hype was so intense during 2007, even though some people were asking me to.<BR/><BR/>But seriously, this blog is not to prove if I am right or wrong. It's just to get a decent return on my investment over the long-term, and to illustrate the usage of WB and BG's techniques for investing in companies. Along the way, we live and we learn, and we GROW.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for visiting.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-81354626517783933012008-10-27T01:28:00.000+08:002008-10-27T01:28:00.000+08:00The best time to buy is when people are fearful, w...The best time to buy is when people are fearful, when market is gloomy and when companies start to post lower or even negative earnings. <BR/><BR/>People as usual will think that the situation will get worse. It's normal. When oil price went up from $20 to $149, the analysts will come out and say price will go up to $200. When commodities prices were recording new highs everyday, people said it would go up MORE! They said (including the great Jim Rogers) the commodities prices will continue to rise. And rise for 20 years. But what happen now? Oil at $64? 60% drop.<BR/><BR/>When prices start to turn downwards, people start to say prices will continue to fall. Like oil $50(i thought they just predicted $200 not too long ago?), Dow 4000pts, HSI <10000 pts, SGX 800pts, KLCI 300pts. Whether will it come true or not, I don't think anybody here can tell. <BR/><BR/>For value investors (eg. Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Benjamin Graham, and Musicwhiz) they buy because they think the stocks are cheap compared to the value of the company. For example, there are companies selling at half of its net cash. People are willing to offer their $1.00 cash for $0.50. Can you believe it? Where to find these deals? In real life, people will say 'siao arr?'. But in the stock markets, you can sometimes find it. And it only comes once in a decade or sometimes once in a lifetime.<BR/><BR/>I dare not say that the prices won't go down further. Maybe it will drop another 50%, and sell at a quarter of its net cash. To use $0.25 to buy $1.00, I think it's not so bad afterall.<BR/><BR/>Those who disagree or throwing a wet blankets over MW. I hope you will stand up later (if he is proven right) to give him back the credits for being a courageous man at turbulent times. Only time will tell.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>ValueInvestor wannabeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-52710606196487275372008-10-23T08:20:00.000+08:002008-10-23T08:20:00.000+08:00scanning the comments showed a mix bag of consolat...scanning the comments showed a mix bag of consolations, encouragements, frustrations, humilations...etc, only a robot can avoid such feelings and emotions. human spirit is more interesting.. the least i can say is that all are sharing if you know how to interpret what they are saying.. and that is the wonderful part of human making a contribution to the society. can't say for sure anyone ever live through great depression out there, i didn't but certainly don't expect people to live daily starving in those days. i thought that is progress because human learnt and avoid repeating mistakes of the same kind.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-20364750615297895762008-10-21T17:37:00.000+08:002008-10-21T17:37:00.000+08:00Hi Mr.MusicWhiz,I saw the last comment of Mr.Chua ...Hi Mr.MusicWhiz,<BR/><BR/>I saw the last comment of Mr.Chua which quite captured what i was about to say.<BR/><BR/>All the best for your investments.<BR/><BR/>Regards<BR/><BR/>VAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-22710539353509644382008-10-18T11:12:00.000+08:002008-10-18T11:12:00.000+08:00Hello ghchua,Thanks for visiting. Yes I will ignor...Hello ghchua,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for visiting. Yes I will ignore the incessant noise and stay true to my investment philosophy. Appreciate your comment.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-32477846894741632612008-10-17T12:57:00.000+08:002008-10-17T12:57:00.000+08:00Hi Musicwhiz,Ignore the noises. Follow through you...Hi Musicwhiz,<BR/><BR/>Ignore the noises. Follow through your value investing strategy. Keep up your good work!ghchuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09475913934410840352noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-59837361471890950102008-10-17T00:14:00.000+08:002008-10-17T00:14:00.000+08:00Hi Donmihaihai,Wise words indeed. Of course my mai...Hi Donmihaihai,<BR/><BR/>Wise words indeed. Of course my main worry here is whether I had made a mistake in my original assumptions, not how the market price is doing. Market prices may or may not reflect the true underlying fundamentals, because currently it's a sentiment driven market and it's very manic. After reviewing my companies, I am glad to say that I feel comfortable owning them, and perhaps had panicked too prematurely when I realized the magnitude of the credit crunch.<BR/><BR/>I don't really agree that all the Buffett and Graham are thrown away. It's more a case of whether things have changed significantly enough for me to revisit my original assumptions. I think even Buffett reads extensively to understand the dynamics of the economy and the impact it may have on the companies he owns. Yes it may seem like the road is unclear and the future murky, but during such times one has to count on Management's competence to get through crises.<BR/><BR/>I agree with you on Munger's quote. I should equip myself with more tools for analysis and widen my knowledge base and competence, or else as you say everything looks like a nail when you have a hammer. I thank you sincerely for your good advice.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-88299357780008337402008-10-17T00:06:00.000+08:002008-10-17T00:06:00.000+08:00Hi Gary Teh,No worries, value investors and seriou...Hi Gary Teh,<BR/><BR/>No worries, value investors and serious long-term investors know their companies well and know the intrinsic value; thus they will know when to buy in - when Mr. Market is at his most manic and fearful.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-86160800811240773142008-10-17T00:03:00.000+08:002008-10-17T00:03:00.000+08:00Hi fishfish,Thanks for visiting ! Your posts are v...Hi fishfish,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for visiting ! Your posts are very good on CNA forum and I appreciate that.<BR/><BR/>Yes China Fishery and PAH came up with some assurances for shareholders, probably it's because of their high gearing issue. Hopefully, it does not spiral into a crisis for them but I have faith in the Management and their ability to handle this credit crunch.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-57125667079463417232008-10-17T00:01:00.000+08:002008-10-17T00:01:00.000+08:00Hi Tian Cheng,Yes, I admit I made a mistake and di...Hi Tian Cheng,<BR/><BR/>Yes, I admit I made a mistake and did not seek sufficient margin of safety when purchasing Pacific Andes. I will work towards correcting that mistake in my future years of investing.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for highlighting.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-5447633840198986932008-10-16T23:51:00.000+08:002008-10-16T23:51:00.000+08:00Hi Hilltop,Your comment is pretty interesting beca...Hi Hilltop,<BR/><BR/>Your comment is pretty interesting because it sounds contradictory. The calm ones are collecting of course, while the panicky ones may be going around suaning everyone else about their losses etc. Who knows ? Anyway, does it truly matter ? As long as you are comfortable with your investments, that's enough right ?<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-34052157683185739042008-10-16T23:45:00.000+08:002008-10-16T23:45:00.000+08:00Hi 8percentpa,Yes, you are right indeed about know...Hi 8percentpa,<BR/><BR/>Yes, you are right indeed about knowledge increasing ! This bear market has taught me more than any book or publication could ever ! I've learnt that one can wait for trough valuations before buying into good, solid companies. In bear markets, even blue chips are down so I will consider investing in blue chips as I near retirement age (assuming I get to research them of course).<BR/><BR/>Yep, no use arguing with some people - it's a waste of time and energy. I will take your advice and ignore the people who love causing trouble.<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-83564849559194816092008-10-16T23:40:00.000+08:002008-10-16T23:40:00.000+08:00hi,Remember that the greatest fear a value investo...hi,<BR/><BR/>Remember that the greatest fear a value investor can have is that he made mistakes in his original assumptions; <BR/><BR/>>> It is a certainty that most if not all investor make mistakes. There is no fear here. The only thing is when mistake is being made, how bad it hurt or how you limit the pain.<BR/><BR/>I hope I can really take a holiday, ignore Mr. Market and come back and still see my companies surviving. It may sound a little exaggerated but in this current climate where even healthy companies are likely to fail, one can never be too certain.<BR/><BR/>>> You are entering a dark lane without a clear head... All your Buffett, Graham approaches that you wrote earlier in this blog are throw away. <BR/><BR/>Other won't say this but what are the root causes? Take a break, take a holiday, read a good book. Like Charlie Munger keep saying... "Equip yourself with more tools, don't keep hammering with a hammer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-40168872931785255602008-10-16T23:39:00.000+08:002008-10-16T23:39:00.000+08:00Hi Breakwind,It's ok, everyone has their opinions ...Hi Breakwind,<BR/><BR/>It's ok, everyone has their opinions about gearing amid such a credit crunch. I have to say that gearing of 1.0 is definitely not low, but then again the company intends for it to remain at 1 and will use bonds and sale and leaseback to raise more cash. Most importantly, the company has to have operating cash inflows from its contracts in order to continue expanding.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-51894176903804313972008-10-16T23:08:00.000+08:002008-10-16T23:08:00.000+08:00Hey Hilltop...I guess that you must be the one goi...Hey Hilltop...I guess that you must be the one going downhill fast since you probably bought at the 'hilltop' and it must be a real slide downhill...<BR/><BR/>If you don't have anything positive to contribute go rant somewhere else. As far as MW and other value investors are concerned this is a great opportunity..buying at the valley...not the hilltop.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01505385331230519209noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-52976238087424427532008-10-16T21:56:00.000+08:002008-10-16T21:56:00.000+08:00Please also note the announcement of PAIH:The Boar...Please also note the announcement of PAIH:<BR/><BR/>The Board notes significant fluctuations on the Company’s share price during the last few trading days.<BR/>The Company would like to assure its shareholders and investing public that as at to date:<BR/>1. The Board is not aware of any news or circumstances that may have rendered such movement on<BR/>the Company’s share price;<BR/>2. Our business units continue to be strong and stable. With the recent decrease in oil prices, the<BR/>Company expects a cost reduction to our business operations;<BR/>3. N.S. Hong Investment (BVI) Limited (“N.S. Hong”), the controlling shareholder of the Company<BR/>has not pledged or mortgaged any of its shares to a third party. N.S. Hong has no intention to reduce<BR/>its shareholding in the Company and has given its utmost commitment and support to the Company;<BR/>and<BR/>4. The Board believes that the fluctuation of the Company’s share price is caused by lack of investors’<BR/>confidence arising from the current worldwide financial turmoil.<BR/>By order of the Board<BR/>Pacific Andes International Holdings Limited<BR/>Ng Joo Siang<BR/>Vice-Chairman and Managing Director<BR/>Hong Kong, 16 October 2008<BR/>As at the date of this announcement, the executive directors of the Company are Madam Teh Hong<BR/>Eng, Mr. Ng Joo Siang, Mr. Ng Joo Kwee, Mr. Ng Joo Puay, Frank, and Ms. Ng Puay Yee whilst the<BR/>independent non-executive directors of the Company are Mr. Lew V. Robert and Mr. Kwok Lam Kwong,<BR/>Larry.<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>fishfishAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-92096116170871027502008-10-16T21:36:00.000+08:002008-10-16T21:36:00.000+08:00Hi, fishfish,Good summary of Pac Andes status! Let...Hi, fishfish,<BR/><BR/>Good summary of Pac Andes status! Let's hope for the best!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-13048931585960567032008-10-16T20:28:00.000+08:002008-10-16T20:28:00.000+08:00Hi Tian Cheng,Some points:PAH SCM business is a tr...Hi Tian Cheng,<BR/><BR/>Some points:<BR/><BR/>PAH SCM business is a trading nature, you need to compare the debt level of other trading companies.<BR/><BR/>The debt level of the group PAIH/PAH/CFG is health as stated by CEO of PAIH on 5/9/2008.<BR/><BR/>2008年9月5日 16:04 財經消息<BR/><BR/>匯港通訊- 太平洋恩利(01174)財務總監陳德熹表示,秘魯將於明年實施捕魚配額制度,公司取得約4.55%的配額,未來若價錢合理,會繼續收購魚船,而所需資金會以於秘魯及北太平洋所賺取的資金來應付。<BR/><BR/>副主席兼董事總經理黃裕翔表示,公司於06年底推出7年期債券,加上旗下船隻可分期供款,故較易向銀行借貸,目前亦無融資壓力。陳德熹補充,現時公司長短期貸款各佔一半,有良好的資本架構,公司的負債比率較同行平均1.5倍為低,為90%。<BR/><BR/>陳德熹指,公司現有23艘大型拖網魚船,其中2艘已調往南太平洋,預計於08年底至09年初會再調配數艘船到南太平洋。<BR/><BR/>PAIH increased PAH to 64.85 by Scrip Dividend Scheme on 26-9-08<BR/><BR/>16-10-08 announcement on SGX<BR/>http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/37e9d50ee377b2304825735f00233861/a7ac3f9e330dc829482574e4003232e8?OpenDocument<BR/><BR/>The Board of Directors of Pacific Andes (Holdings) Limited ("Company") notes significant fluctuations on the Company’s share price during the last few trading days. The Company would like to assure its shareholders and investing public that as at to date:<BR/><BR/>1. The Board is not aware of any news or circumstances that may have rendered such movement on the Company’s share price;<BR/><BR/>2. Our business units continue to be strong and stable. With the recent decrease in oil prices, the Company expects a cost reduction to our business operations; <BR/><BR/>3. Clamford Holding Limited (“Clamford”), the controlling shareholder of the Company has not pledged or mortgaged any of its shares to a third party. Clamford has no intention to reduce its shareholding in the Company and has given its utmost commitment and support to the Company; and<BR/><BR/>4. The Board believes that the fluctuation of the Company’s share price is caused by lack of investors’ confidence arising from the current worldwide financial turmoil. <BR/><BR/><BR/>By order of the Board<BR/><BR/><BR/>Lynn Wan Tiew Leng<BR/>Company Secretary<BR/><BR/>16 October 2008 <BR/><BR/><BR/> <BR/>fishfishAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-80242615379686748512008-10-16T15:44:00.000+08:002008-10-16T15:44:00.000+08:00not me! not me! im calm! im calm! listen to me guy...not me! not me! im calm! im calm! listen to me guys, im not panicking! u guys dunno, but ive been buying up so much shares without telling u guys! obikut!<BR/><BR/>haha.<BR/><BR/>so hilltop, wat do u want them to do? don't post anything?simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01511349808077597074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-32308520421120563532008-10-16T15:39:00.000+08:002008-10-16T15:39:00.000+08:00Hi Musicwhiz,Of all the companies you analyzed, I ...Hi Musicwhiz,<BR/><BR/>Of all the companies you analyzed, I am least comfortable with Pacific Andes - not sure if it is sinking in the current circumstance - there is not much information around for closer watch.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15529754946832405989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-55470844909435964372008-10-16T15:31:00.000+08:002008-10-16T15:31:00.000+08:00Hi Hilltop,pls try not to generalize, there are ma...Hi Hilltop,<BR/>pls try not to generalize, there are many reasons why people talk more. Some just like to post stuff taunting others for reasons known only to themselves. <BR/>There are serious issues and events happening around the world and it might not be a bad thing to bounce ideas or reiterate the basic investing principles.<BR/>Hope you have some ideas to contribute, we're all here to learn.Rickyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18410941051849870875noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-42708610631752331792008-10-16T15:16:00.000+08:002008-10-16T15:16:00.000+08:00Seems like it's the same story in most value-inves...Seems like it's the same story in most value-investing forums / blog - the typical strength in numbers and herd mentality I see in people who beat their chests and loudly proclaim that they are logical and cool headed investors above crowd irrationality etc etc.<BR/><BR/>Think about it, the really calm ones are probably buying up quietly en masse or like someone above said, taking a holiday and enjoying their break from the market.<BR/><BR/>Only those who are in panic and near capitulation will crowd together online and try to console each other what a great time for stocks to fall, can buy cheap cheap, will profit handsomely many years down the road and all that bla bla. <BR/><BR/>Just look at the number of people and the frequency they post and you can sense fear all over the net, the louder they proclaim their calmness, the more panicky they probably are.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-50265573568417857382008-10-16T14:31:00.000+08:002008-10-16T14:31:00.000+08:00Hi MW,Would just like to reiterate the point raise...Hi MW,<BR/><BR/>Would just like to reiterate the point raised over and over again: Great blog, great job, keep up the good work!<BR/><BR/>Need not spend too much time mulling over anonymous posts wet-blanket-ing your work. Some pple just have a grudge to grind, badly affected by the markets, I guess.<BR/><BR/>Charlie Munger likes this quote, don't wrestle with a pig. Even if you win, you get all dirty and muddy. And the pig enjoys it! So it's lose-lose for the wrestler. <BR/><BR/>Hope that you are not to distraughted by prices falling off the cliff. Prices are not intrinsic values. Well, you know that better, I guess.<BR/><BR/>Keep investing, esp during these times and when everything is said and done, you win bcos<BR/>1) Your knowledge base increase<BR/>2) You created a fantastic blog that helped many other investors<BR/>3) I believe your portfolio will deliver a good return.Jayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03292158817395898619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-79699079225798578502008-10-16T14:22:00.000+08:002008-10-16T14:22:00.000+08:00Hi MusicwhizIf u remember, I ever said that I was ...Hi Musicwhiz<BR/><BR/>If u remember, I ever said that I was not very comfortable with Swiber's high gearing ratio a couple of months back. I bought at 2.95 and sold and 2.55. Subsequently, when it gone down to 1.47, I started buying again and average it to around 1.39. I even bought at 0.7 and 0.6 but let those go at 0.55 because I really thing Swiber will be severely punished by the market for having high gearing.<BR/><BR/>Therefore, I will not be averaging down Swiber until things are more certain. <BR/><BR/>Keep up the good work. U are my source of inspiration and information.<BR/><BR/><BR/>BreakwindAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com