tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post5323201941301626101..comments2023-10-12T21:12:41.408+08:00Comments on Value Investment - Musicwhiz's Journey: Musicwhizhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-33197211948078731732008-11-09T01:51:00.000+08:002008-11-09T01:51:00.000+08:00Hi Mr. Tan,No, I will not cut my losses and sell t...Hi Mr. Tan,<BR/><BR/>No, I will not cut my losses and sell to a manic Mr. Market. Other people can think what they want about the companies I own, but I do have my own quiet confidence that their business can perform well in the next couple of years.<BR/><BR/>In fact, as of this date (Nov 9, 2008), I have purchase additional stakes in Ezra, Swiber, Boustead, China Fishery and Tat Hong. I see opportunities when Mr. Market is manic and severely under-values businesses.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-45034382990296912582008-11-06T01:00:00.000+08:002008-11-06T01:00:00.000+08:00HI MW,I'm very new to investing and I've been foll...HI MW,<BR/><BR/>I'm very new to investing and I've been following your blog as well as others religiously through these tumultuous times.<BR/><BR/>I would like to seek your opinion on whether if now given the chance just before/slightly after the market slid, would you rather cut your losses and tide out the gloomy financial period? <BR/><BR/>Because since your time horizon is quite long, and it can be basically simplified into a simple buy-and-hold strategy, it doesn't seem like a good choice to hold on to them in such gloomy economic weather. <BR/><BR/>It is just my opinion and i would like to thank you for your time to post your discussions and analysis on your blog, and also hear about your views and share your strategies.<BR/><BR/>thanks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-21492643116701963942008-11-03T21:22:00.000+08:002008-11-03T21:22:00.000+08:00ha ha... 0.59 today, that's 74.5% gain of my 20 lo...ha ha... 0.59 today, that's 74.5% gain of my 20 lots just last week purchase, nett PAPER gain is SGD 5K, ha ha... thanks for this good recommendation, LOL... going to sell when it reach 70 cents. let's see..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-11731416354244827342008-10-30T12:25:00.000+08:002008-10-30T12:25:00.000+08:00i might hit jackpot with my 20 lots Ezra at 0.34, ...i might hit jackpot with my 20 lots Ezra at 0.34, LOL..... thanks dudeAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-32011761087154384992008-10-29T23:11:00.000+08:002008-10-29T23:11:00.000+08:00Hi,Have you read CH Offshore 1Q2009 results? That ...Hi,<BR/><BR/>Have you read CH Offshore 1Q2009 results? That is what I am talking about. extraordinary.<BR/><BR/>I do not believe they are being called "norwayian dentist" for no reason. rather than guessing on the merits and demerits, try re-read(or read) Warren Buffett chairman's letters <BR/>2007 for "The great, the good and the gruesome" on ROE and business part &<BR/>2005 for "How to minimise investment return" which fit prefectly well on part of the sale and lease back.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-6904784385346150972008-10-29T01:38:00.000+08:002008-10-29T01:38:00.000+08:00Hi donmihaihai,Regardless of whether you have resu...Hi donmihaihai,<BR/><BR/>Regardless of whether you have results or not, it's the analytical skill I admire. I don't admire WB because of wealth, in fact it's his character which I find refreshing and his humility.<BR/><BR/>According to the Company, they are able to use a mixture of internal CF and debt to fund their MFSV and expansion of their yard. I certainly hope they did their sums right, it would be tough to raise capital through debt in such a credit crunch; and equity is simply out of the question.<BR/><BR/>I agree, each party would want some "return" on the transaction. A S&L is not good for ROE but is used more for cash flow purpose and to expand "off Balance-Sheet". I guess there are merits and demerits to using such a method.<BR/><BR/>I concur that you can't change the packaging - I've always stripped out Ezra's exceptional gains from S&L when computing their REAL growth. It's been steady (not explosive) and that makes me comfortable.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-52051250600538575062008-10-28T20:36:00.000+08:002008-10-28T20:36:00.000+08:00my next stratergy is to buy most of the musicwhiz ...my next stratergy is to buy most of the musicwhiz portfolio at dirt cheap price, heee.. since he is doing such a deep analysis, i will next Suntect Reit, Swiber, ChinaFishery and TatHong... but not Boustead, Pacific andes and First Ship Lease Trust. the price now, I can get 50% cheaper , by the time, I reap 100% gain, you just average out, heee..<BR/><BR/>let's see... thanks for the sharing dude.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-21953776030922573732008-10-28T11:54:00.000+08:002008-10-28T11:54:00.000+08:00yes, bought 20 lots of Ezra at $0.34... hopefully,...yes, bought 20 lots of Ezra at $0.34... hopefully, I will swim through the current.. cheers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-37575054706644624592008-10-26T21:52:00.000+08:002008-10-26T21:52:00.000+08:00Hi,I does not deserve any respect as an investor b...Hi,<BR/><BR/>I does not deserve any respect as an investor because I have nothing to show. NO RESULT.<BR/><BR/>Anyway I have only one question left which is with all capital expenditure coming in the next couple of years, can EZRA fund them with internal cashflow and debts? If not then the real headaches will start and I thinks they will start with many diff ways to get that capital which can include playing their acc to the border too.....<BR/><BR/>For ROE is sale and lease back.<BR/>1) Yes comparing with other firms in the same industry.<BR/>2) I spoke with an executive of a local listed OSV about sale and lease back. He called them norwayian dentist which demand 15% return for these kind of business.<BR/><BR/>I din verify the 15% but it should be pretty much there as that is the kind of return many funds and company are looking for.<BR/><BR/>Now, if a company do a sale and lease back, the return(return on equity)will need to share by 2 parties rather than one. If an OSV company can earns 30% ROE at current time with reasonable leverage, then 15% will go to those "norwayian dentist" while another 15% will go to the OSV. As simple as that, sale and lease back can fuel grow but improve ROE is another story. <BR/><BR/>Just like sub-prime, one can't change the whole thing by packaging them. Worse still, don't forget there are always some causes that can hurt them when time change. The earlier sale and lease back should be ok but the later ones done when the cycle is peaking are the dangerous one.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-58014009452458824832008-10-26T09:19:00.000+08:002008-10-26T09:19:00.000+08:00Hi Donmihaihai,No la, I respect all investors if t...Hi Donmihaihai,<BR/><BR/>No la, I respect all investors if they come from a clear base of thinking and if they ask sharp questions. From your blog, I can tell that you do think through a lot of issues and are a careful investor; though of course one cannot have enough margin of safety in such tough times. To me you appear candid and somewhat unrestrained, but I know your intentions are good. :)<BR/><BR/>1) You are right, the sale and leaseback is what generated exceptional gains and increased the equity base. I am not sure if you can safely conclude that ROE should have been higher - are you comparing with other firms in the same industry ?<BR/><BR/>2) For Ezra, their business model works in a different way in that their customers do not pay in advance, but only when the charter commences. Even though they seem to have expanded aggressively, in reality they only take delivery of 1-3 vessels per year from FY 2008 onwards and thus their operating cash flows should increase steadily rather than having a large jump.<BR/><BR/>3) Most of the capital is generating through operating cash inflows, sale and leaseback and also sale of part of EOC (51.1% to be exact). Yes you can definitely question their capital-raising methods which are risky and unconventional; but luckily it served them well in the past. Though of course they will find it almost impossible to tap the equity and debt markets for fresh funds now and probably in the next 6-9 months.<BR/><BR/>4) Well, let's just leave it at that. Maybe I am not so imaginative and thus cannot think of other reasons for the change in functional currency.<BR/><BR/>Your point is valid, but I see Ezra as more of a steady grower in terms of ROE and bottom line (take away all exceptionals and recurring profit is growing steadily, not by leaps and bounds). The company is also slowly expanding into other areas like their Vietnam yard and Energy Services.<BR/><BR/>As I said in my latest blog post, even if I were to lose all monies on Ezra, I will take it as a lesson learnt and mistake recognized. It will not adversely affect my financial position and I am prepared for such an eventuality should it arrive.<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-72595058299681111242008-10-26T09:09:00.000+08:002008-10-26T09:09:00.000+08:00HI Leeku,I agree with your views. Such measures ar...HI Leeku,<BR/><BR/>I agree with your views. Such measures are definitely higher risk in such an economic climate, compared to 2-3 years ago during the boom. I admit I should have prepared myself for this but I did not; so maybe in time I can blog about it as one of my investment mistakes, which I shall readily accept and learn from.<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-22367368080360633232008-10-26T01:43:00.000+08:002008-10-26T01:43:00.000+08:00hi,Temper my tone?I try lah.. but if you do notice...hi,<BR/><BR/>Temper my tone?I try lah.. but if you do notice, I am always like that. Never change. And the last thing I need is respect as an investor which I don't need and deserve.<BR/><BR/>For 1) Correct. That should be one of the reason for low ROE. But in time of GREAT DEMAND, it is not uncommon for company to earn 2X or 3X more. So the question mark is there and I seriously think that it is due to sale and lease back.<BR/><BR/>For 2. That is not what I am trying to say. I mean in time of GREAT DEMAND, company/people having the assets that are in demand will has bargaining power(or pricing power)which will cause their cashflow to be very good. One recent example is raw materials, almost every manufacturing company is paying or paying in advance which cause their working capital to change. Another example is OSV where their liabilities increase because their customers are paying in advance.<BR/><BR/>For 3 & 5. What I am saying is what is happening to EZRA is most of their capital is not from normal course of operation but rather "trading" or whatever you want to call it. Of course I hope that you put that out to prove me wrong because I din go and add them up. <BR/><BR/>For 4)Maybe there is no correct way but isn't it time to think when it happened? I mean why accept all reasons given by company? It is not a prudent thing to do too.<BR/><BR/>I think it is my fault as I never stated clearly earlier that I see EZRA as a company in an industry with great demand. For these company, I like to see margin expansion, increasing ROE and very strong cashflow. It may not the case for any single year but on average over a number of years, it must be there and OSV has been surging blooming for last 5 years or so.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-9943819249955412242008-10-25T21:29:00.000+08:002008-10-25T21:29:00.000+08:00yo mw, surely mostly affected but not all in the s...yo mw, surely mostly affected but not all in the same way. one thing for sure, the cost of financing will be expensive... which will eat into cash flow crucial to survive this crisis....<BR/><BR/>cost of biz will be higher when biz is no good... mortgage int will increase when rental no good... its more or less a fact now...<BR/><BR/>the cut loss point maybe irrelevant now... its all depending on ur appetite n war chest....<BR/><BR/>hopefully most can pull thru and then vola... the bull will be back.... then we can start the party again... till then, take care<BR/><BR/><BR/>leekuAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-51326221825703162532008-10-25T19:06:00.000+08:002008-10-25T19:06:00.000+08:00Anonymous,Can't you at least be polite and leave y...Anonymous,<BR/><BR/>Can't you at least be polite and leave your name ? The tone of the comment is, as usual, vindictive. I just wonder if there can more polite people out there ?<BR/><BR/>It is up to the arranger (UOB) to assist Ezra to look for potential note holders, and to market the notes. It is very premature to pass a blanket statement about there being no takers just because of the credit conditions.<BR/><BR/>Please do your homework too and be aware that not all companies are affected the same way in a credit crunch !<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-57857104677436031272008-10-25T17:33:00.000+08:002008-10-25T17:33:00.000+08:00The MTN facility is not something that is underwri...The MTN facility is not something that is underwritten or committed. It is issued on an ad hoc basis depending on the credit conditions. So in this current market, the company may not be able to get any takers for its notes.<BR/><BR/>Do your homework properly and reassess the risks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-62359654739272594572008-10-25T16:19:00.000+08:002008-10-25T16:19:00.000+08:00Dear nalabala,No hard feelings too, since you are ...Dear nalabala,<BR/><BR/>No hard feelings too, since you are so polite. But the speed of deterioration in credit markets and the global economy caught everyone by surprise. I don't think it's fair to use "over-confident" and "under-estimate market risk" because even the experts under-estimated everything; much less retail investors like us. We can only see the carnage with the benefit of HINDSIGHT.<BR/><BR/>So a strategy is wrong just because the market price collapses 80-90% within a year ? So what happened to the belief that price and value are not correlated ? I guess it must be a forgotten concept during such bearish times....<BR/><BR/>I agree no company will admit they are going under soon, but one can get an idea from their financial statements. Risks are of course higher for companies with high gearing, I do admit. But ultimately we have to trust in our choices and the quality of Management. They also have a significant stake in the company (usually at least 20% or more) and would NOT want to see it fail, right ?<BR/><BR/>When I purchased Ezra, it was with a view to hold it till at least FY 2012 when all its MSFVs come on-stream. The original intention is already for long-term, so why bother about hindsight and about selling at $XXX and then buying back at $XXX ? Purely academic. Most stocks give returns of about 6-8% per annum including dividends over the long-term. I apply margin of safety to my purchases so that I protect my capial; short-term price fluctuations do not bother me too much.<BR/><BR/>Last point to note: how can a 3-5 year buy and hold strategy "not work" when 3-5 years has yet to pass from this point ? Note that the global credit crisis has erupted at this point in time which is depressing valuations of ALL companies including blue chips like SingTel, DBS, UOB and Keppel Corp. So you are saying that a person holding the blue chips 3-5 years ago is also "wrong" because they did not make a profit after all that holding ? Have a longer-term investing horizon than just 3-5 years. Some companies take many more years to build themselves up; the patient investor will reap long-term rewards.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-28083160495524421092008-10-25T16:11:00.000+08:002008-10-25T16:11:00.000+08:00Hi James T,Don't be too bothered by that blog. The...Hi James T,<BR/><BR/>Don't be too bothered by that blog. They are dragging up a lot of info from the prospectus and using it to bolster their case. The company is very different now compared to the time of IPO so how can you do such a comparison ? It's like comparing apples to oranges.<BR/><BR/>As for debt financing, Ezra has secured a S$500 million loan facility announced on August 1, 2008. I can't tell you whether you should buy back; all I can say is you should review all the facts on your own and not just listen to myself or a few other blogs. Independent thinking is what I emphasize.<BR/><BR/>Good luck !<BR/><BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-71610567632220071012008-10-25T16:08:00.000+08:002008-10-25T16:08:00.000+08:00Hi Leeku,Thanks for your comments. The world is to...Hi Leeku,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your comments. The world is topsy-turvy now, that's a fact. The idea is to wait for the storm to subside to see what the situation will be. In the meantime, one should hold on to their investments - why sell into a deep bear market when Mr. Market is horribly manic ?<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-34002628563876152892008-10-25T16:06:00.000+08:002008-10-25T16:06:00.000+08:00Hi ROBERTAY,Yes, you should not expect dividends f...Hi ROBERTAY,<BR/><BR/>Yes, you should not expect dividends from the two companies as they need cash to scale up their vessel fleet. Essentially, they are in the "growth" phase and will only hit "maturity" many years from now.<BR/><BR/>And please, my advice is not to borrow more money to invest in the market. This is NOT a good time to incur more debts as a global recession is coming.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-37741074199188408472008-10-25T16:04:00.000+08:002008-10-25T16:04:00.000+08:00Hi Jack,Nice of you to drop in. Yes, I believe I w...Hi Jack,<BR/><BR/>Nice of you to drop in. Yes, I believe I will learn valuable lessons from this experience, even if some of my investments don't turn out well 5 years down the road. Mistakes are to be learnt from, not shunned and feared. Experience will make one wiser.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-60498390440853078722008-10-25T16:03:00.000+08:002008-10-25T16:03:00.000+08:00Hi SGBluechip,Thanks for visiting and sharing your...Hi SGBluechip,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for visiting and sharing your thoughts. I also believe most people comment here with hindsight investing mentality. The classic "I told you so" when they themselves don't examine their own strategies or whether their own conviction had worked for them.<BR/><BR/>As you say, hiding behind "anonymous" allows one to say more or less anything he pleases.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-19590557943088763192008-10-25T16:00:00.000+08:002008-10-25T16:00:00.000+08:00Hi donmihaihai,I have respect for you as an invest...Hi donmihaihai,<BR/><BR/>I have respect for you as an investor but in your most recent comment you seem to come on a little strong. I am requesting politely for you to temper your tone; this is after all a discussion.<BR/><BR/>1) ROE for the company for FY 2007 is about 11.8%, while for FY 2008 it was about 13.1%. As mentioned, the exceptional gains have made their equity base balloon over and above what it would normally be had they just retained recurring profits year after year. This would put ROE in the low teens for the last few years.<BR/><BR/>2) I don't agree with the fact that Ezra should have pricing power. Market rates determine the charter income that Ezra gets and I don't think they can negotiate rates 10-20% higher than industry unless they had some special advantage. And payments for charters are regular except for new charters where the payment structure may differ, so I am surprised when you say that this plays a part in customer hastening their payments; therefore operating cash flows should be higher.<BR/><BR/>3) Not sure what you are asking me to do, but please don't make it sound like a challenge. This is just a discussion so both of us can learn.<BR/><BR/>4) Maybe your phrasing is a little funny, but I don't understand what you mean by "CORRECT WAY" of asking. You mean there is a wrong way ? That is the reason given. Period.<BR/><BR/>5) Actually, I don't know where you are coming from and am unsure what you are trying to ask. Why the focus on "sale of vessels" ? I've said time and again that Ezra's core business is NOT in the sale of vessels for gains. It is stable charter revenues and project-based assignments for fabrication and construction. Their customers consist of oil majors and smaller oil companies. They have provided for doubtful debts because of the risk of the smaller players going bust.<BR/><BR/>What facts would you like to see ?Their vessels are coming on-stream from FY 2009 to FY 2011, so the cash will come in once each vessel is chartered out, subject to on-time delivery of each vessel. Just wait for time to pass and don't be too hasty to pass judgement just because of the current turbulence in the global economy.<BR/><BR/>Thanks,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-4878202685859621082008-10-25T15:38:00.000+08:002008-10-25T15:38:00.000+08:00Hi PC,Thanks, good idea ! Your advice is much appr...Hi PC,<BR/><BR/>Thanks, good idea ! Your advice is much appreciated.<BR/><BR/>Take Care,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-83740866244939472592008-10-25T15:37:00.000+08:002008-10-25T15:37:00.000+08:00To all the Anonymous people out there (yeah those ...To all the Anonymous people out there (yeah those who don't bother to even leave a nickname or initials), this is a blanket comment for all of you.<BR/><BR/>In my blog, I have always maintained that I am new to value investing, and that I started only in late 2006. Before that, I was stumbling around using all sorts of methods which produced lousy results in a BULL market. The fact is a lot of comments here border on trading mentalities, which is NOT what this blog is about, so I am not sure why these people choose to visit and carpet bomb this comments box with their fanciful theories about what one SHOULD have done, or WOULD have done etc. Hindsight investing is very pervasive, need I say more ?<BR/><BR/>As for macro-economic conditions deteriorating rapidly, I think no one could have seen it coming, much less a retail investor such as myself. Not even Henry Paulson, Ben Bernanke or the famous Alan Greenspan could have seen this tsunami coming; and mind you they are veterans in the market and are experts in economic policy. So how can an ordinary man on the street hope to figure out the ramifications of the credit crisis ? To pass judgement such as this, please look at yourself in the mirror first and honestly ask whether you KNEW it was going to be that bad ? I doubt many people can say "yes" to this 9-12 months ago.<BR/><BR/>Over-confidence ? This word crops up more often than once. Just because one has faith in the company one has invested in, during bear markets, it has been perceived as "over-confidence". It's a little like analysts changing their recommendations on a whim because of winds of change, and adding in weird stuff like "bear market discount of 15%" to their valuations. As an aspiring value investor, I have never admitted my analysis was superb or good; I just do my best. If global events happen to catch me by surprise, then so be it. This is what MARGIN OF SAFETY is for - so that one does not lose to much money if one turns out to be wrong. Purchasing companies at decent valuations means there is a chance the company can continue to churn out profits and grow after the economic crisis is over. I would much prefer this to either i) buying at 30x PER during the bull market or ii) buying loss-making, speculative companies with no sustainable business model. One can argue that Ezra's business model is flawed, but time has yet to pass and people are already passing judgement ! And all simply based on Mr. Market's moods, which I find highly entertaining.<BR/><BR/>I have also noticed that bear markets tend to bring out the WORST in people. People love to gloat, point fingers, accuse, laugh at or be sarcastic. Perhaps this reflects the prevailing sentiment out there and the despair and hopelessness people feel. If your time horizon is 3-5 years, most companies (not all) will survive and be able to continue growing.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-56526286990577300762008-10-25T10:58:00.000+08:002008-10-25T10:58:00.000+08:00No hard feelings musicwhiz, but I think the curren...No hard feelings musicwhiz, but I think the current market is a classic example that exposes many investors like yourself who are too overconfident and often underestimate market risks. There comes a point when you have to accept the fact that something's wrong with your strategy when you go from +500% to -60% in a year.<BR/><BR/>That's why I always believe in the proper diversification. In bull markets, there's just no way to properly identify company and industrial specific risk no matter how hard a layman try to read annual reports.<BR/><BR/>99% of the management will not disclose the dire state of the company until the day they suspend trading. It's important to take management's presentations with a pinch of salt.<BR/><BR/>You say you have a time frame of 3 - 5 years. But look at Ezra, you bought it in 2005 and it's already more than 3 years now and at this juncture you are like -40% down. You chose not to sell it when it reached $3.50 area with +500%. To even get you back to the $3.50 region last year, you need an increase of +880% within 2 years, what are the chances of that happening?<BR/><BR/>There's only so much theory you can talk before you get slammed with the hard facts. If you argue you are the hold forever guy, maybe there's some room for your strategy, but right now your hold for 3 - 5 year strategy is simply not working.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com