tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post1828789494505003433..comments2023-10-12T21:12:41.408+08:00Comments on Value Investment - Musicwhiz's Journey: Musicwhizhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-24042865765088078992009-01-18T23:28:00.000+08:002009-01-18T23:28:00.000+08:00Dear Createwealth8888,Thanks for visiting !Sigh, I...Dear Createwealth8888,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for visiting !<BR/><BR/>Sigh, I guess you may be right. There are many people out there who may follow certain blogs for their investment decisions and I certainly cannot be held accountable or responsible for their losses or gains. I guess disgruntled people who have lost money would probably feel incensed enough to take a pot shot at me.<BR/><BR/>But the reality is I am also not doing very well myself in terms of my portfolio performance, so these people can take some comfort in that at least, hahaha.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-28435386844160240192009-01-18T23:08:00.000+08:002009-01-18T23:08:00.000+08:00Hi,Probably, someone could have lost money followi...Hi,<BR/><BR/>Probably, someone could have lost money following your blog and got angry about it.Createwealth8888https://www.blogger.com/profile/08563834016250153049noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-11704444456574668042009-01-16T20:24:00.000+08:002009-01-16T20:24:00.000+08:00Hi Anonymous,I know what I have to know about a co...Hi Anonymous,<BR/><BR/>I know what I have to know about a company based on all the available public information that I can find about that company, I do NOT profess to be able to predict the future. What I do NOT know is what is going to happen 3-5 years from now, but as investors we invest based on our assessment of real-world conditions and how Management has built up a company. If we all held back on investing due to uncertainty, then we would be much better off placing all our money in the banks, and no one would purchase equities or mutual funds any longer, right ?<BR/><BR/>As for Tat Hong, it was widely expected by me that they would report lower profits, as provided in my analysis for 1H 2009 results. Thus, the announcement does not come as a surprise or shock, and one quarter of lower profits does not signify that the long-term prospects of a company are bad. If that was the case, would you the conclude that SPH and SGX are "poor" companies just because they reported a 34% and 37% dip in quarterly profits respectively ?<BR/><BR/>Remember (and I may do a post on this in future) that companies are subject to dips and rises in profits as they follow the economic cycle. It would be virtually impossible for a company to see rising profits for 20-30 years WITHOUT a single dip. Of course, if you can find such outstanding companies you can tell me in advance !<BR/><BR/>As to the malice in your tone and your uncalled for comments about the companies I own,, I think you owe an apology. Any decent person does not go around whacking other people's portfolio without suitable justification. If you wish to keep track of Boustead's progress, you are very welcome to do so, but please keep rude and unwanted comments to yourself in future.<BR/><BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-42027733902073415112009-01-16T20:18:00.000+08:002009-01-16T20:18:00.000+08:00Hi Anonymous,You are right to say that I think, bu...Hi Anonymous,<BR/><BR/>You are right to say that I think, but hindsight can provide valuable insights for us to learn from mistakes, though they should not form the basis of all our opinions on the future. The future is simply too uncertain for us to make any concrete forecasts of corporate health, but we do the best we can given the circumstances we are under.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-9442324213048138312009-01-16T20:17:00.000+08:002009-01-16T20:17:00.000+08:00Hello Panzer,Thanks, I fully agree this world is m...Hello Panzer,<BR/><BR/>Thanks, I fully agree this world is more random that we can possibly imagine, and it is difficult to anticipate events, which is why investing can be tough. However, as long as we do not over-commit and we do a rational analysis of a company's prospects, I believe we can expect a decent (NOT exceptional) return on our investment.<BR/><BR/>All the best to you too !<BR/><BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-20635089975990533022009-01-16T19:00:00.000+08:002009-01-16T19:00:00.000+08:00Tat Hong issued a profit guidance.Have you ever wo...Tat Hong issued a profit guidance.<BR/>Have you ever wondered why you profess that you seek to understand everything about a company and invest in only what you know.<BR/><BR/>Now, do you think you know what you know or should you start to think about identifying what you think you know but you don't actually know.<BR/><BR/>Your companies are a bunch of miserable companies. Boustead will be next.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-12381507601027314022009-01-14T06:53:00.000+08:002009-01-14T06:53:00.000+08:00human think systematic and try to shape event, eve...human think systematic and try to shape event, events are more, as said random than we like... people that are creative don't think systematically and seldom talk about hindsight?!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-448595524398561552009-01-12T16:06:00.000+08:002009-01-12T16:06:00.000+08:00Hi musicwhizHindsight bias is explored in more dep...Hi musicwhiz<BR/><BR/>Hindsight bias is explored in more depth by Nicholas Nassim Taleb's "The Black Swan" as well as "Fooled by Randomness".<BR/><BR/>The world is more RANDOM than we'd like it to be. Unfortunately, financial traders think that it is more predictable than we think. As a result, financial tsunamis such as the recent global financial crisis hits us so hard because we fail to see it.<BR/><BR/>The more someone wears a tie and proclaims price of ABC stock went up because of XYZ, the more skeptical you should be ;-)<BR/><BR/>Be well and prosper.PanzerGrenadierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15836438378215893219noreply@blogger.com