tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post1785669666798270562..comments2023-10-12T21:12:41.408+08:00Comments on Value Investment - Musicwhiz's Journey: January 2010 Portfolio Summary and ReviewMusicwhizhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-58437716732744568962010-02-03T23:18:48.177+08:002010-02-03T23:18:48.177+08:00Well Roger,
Private Placements are for raising fu...Well Roger,<br /><br />Private Placements are for raising funds through equity. These are called Secondary offerings, and the way the market reacts is partly due to sentiment, partly to fundamentals.<br /><br />Think about it - if a company had to periodically raise money in this way and dilute existing shareholders, all in the name of finding "strategic partners", is that a good thing in the long-run? One must observe and study the business model and Balance Sheet in order to make such deductions.<br /><br />I would say if you are trading based on sentiment, then I cannot give advice. But if you are studying the fundamentals, then please do look at the Financials, margins and other aspects of the Company.<br /><br />There's a lot of homework and reading to do out there. :)<br /><br />Good luck!<br />MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-25555173682374166842010-02-03T23:12:25.733+08:002010-02-03T23:12:25.733+08:00Sorry, this has no relevance to this post.
What d...Sorry, this has no relevance to this post.<br /><br />What do you think of private placements like the recent one by China Sports?<br /><br />The market reacted negatively, and headed for the exit. I was too slow off the blocks. But I am learning...when the stampede starts, scramble for the exit fast1<br /><br />Is this wise?Rogerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14916607764518042154noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-63212504218571161022010-02-02T10:40:56.942+08:002010-02-02T10:40:56.942+08:00Hi Leps,
Yes, unfortunately it is definitely more...Hi Leps,<br /><br />Yes, unfortunately it is definitely more of an art than an exact science. This is the reason why investing cannot be "taught". If not, then all the students and professors would be filthy rich by now haha!<br /><br />Good luck and Regards,<br />MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-25703888021178957292010-02-01T19:34:12.840+08:002010-02-01T19:34:12.840+08:00Hi MW
Thanks for the prompt and detailed reply, r...Hi MW<br /><br />Thanks for the prompt and detailed reply, really appreciate it.<br /><br />Sorry I wasnt clear in my comment. Your rationale for purchase of all your companies are always set out in a detailed fashion. It was more on why the purchase at a certain price, and what amount of margin of safety that I didnt really discern from them. But, as you have explained, it is more of an art than a science, so I understand that better now. Many thanks and wishing you continued successLepshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11185630646869995704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-18535379082624766522010-02-01T16:56:11.838+08:002010-02-01T16:56:11.838+08:00Hi Leps,
Nope, there was no actual formula used a...Hi Leps,<br /><br />Nope, there was no actual formula used as in % of portfolio or such. I divested China Fish for $50K and decided to allocate S$42K out of that to Kingsmen. I added the remainder to my opportunity fund to watch out for better opportunities, so it's just a matter of reinvesting part of my profits and getting a suitable return on my cash.<br /><br />I will use PER as an indicator and earnings/revenue growth (conservative) as a precursor for screening. Margin of safety comes from analysis of the Balance Sheet over many years (which implies how well the company is run), ROE, Cash Flow analysis and such. There's no hard and fast rule and for me, as long as valuations are fair, I am willing to invest and hold for medium-term. But many factors have to be in my favour before I commit, though intangible aspects may also affect my final decision. In short, it's not science, sometimes it's also based on gut feel and my experience analyzing businesses over the years.<br /><br />I did do an analysis for Tat Hong, and for Boustead I thought the reasoning was pretty clear from all my yearly analyses. As for Suntec, it's an IPO stock and my first and giving yield of 10% so I don't see why I should get rid of it. As for FSL Trust, yes it's a mistake but it's giving cash flows too, so no reason to cut loss now as I still have ample opportunity funds without divesting.<br /><br />For Kingsmen, you'll have to wait for the full analysis (I am still working on it).<br /><br />Regards,<br />MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-81774843883071365752010-02-01T16:21:40.884+08:002010-02-01T16:21:40.884+08:00I am curious as to the amount you committed to Kin...I am curious as to the amount you committed to Kingsmen. Was there any type of formula you used? eg x% of portfolio value, x number of shares.<br /><br />also, you normally do pretty detailed analysis of a company's biz and cashflow etc, but what guidelines do you use for valuation and determining the margin of safety? is it earnings growth? DCF? NAV?<br /><br />your rationale and valuation for GRP and MTQ seem pretty clear, but not so much for the other purchases. Would appreciate if you could explain in more detail? would like to learn more about your thought processes in these respects.<br /><br />thanksLepshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11185630646869995704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-88348060051271005502010-02-01T14:21:38.386+08:002010-02-01T14:21:38.386+08:00Hi JW,
It may take a while for the full research ...Hi JW,<br /><br />It may take a while for the full research to be posted up, as I intend to do it in parts (as usual) and I may intersperse other blog posts about other topics along the way as well.<br /><br />Regards,<br />MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-88366785719948581022010-02-01T12:46:09.357+08:002010-02-01T12:46:09.357+08:00Hi Trendlines,
Thank you for visiting and leaving...Hi Trendlines,<br /><br />Thank you for visiting and leaving a comment. I will be posting my Kingsmen analysis of Purchase soon. :)<br /><br />Regards,<br />MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-29915363761001295272010-02-01T10:51:19.402+08:002010-02-01T10:51:19.402+08:00Hi MusicWhiz, I was also taking interest in Kingsm...Hi MusicWhiz, I was also taking interest in Kingsmen Creative, as well as GuthrieG and Aztech.<br /><br />Think I could wait for your research on Kingsmen instead<br />:)JWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04633191740991225888noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-56640735791118341352010-01-31T22:51:39.601+08:002010-01-31T22:51:39.601+08:00Apologies for the double post, but my nick is '...Apologies for the double post, but my nick is 'Trendlines' for the above commentTrendlineshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17164632917857222852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-5658174164756182002010-01-31T22:48:36.826+08:002010-01-31T22:48:36.826+08:00Although a technician by trade, I follow your post...Although a technician by trade, I follow your posts with great interest. Afterall, great technicals tend to resonate with great fundamentals. Admire your enthusiasm and passion. BTW, Kingsmen - a great pick!Trendlineshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17164632917857222852noreply@blogger.com