tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post105284230314549000..comments2023-10-12T21:12:41.408+08:00Comments on Value Investment - Musicwhiz's Journey: Musicwhizhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-53461168183111076372008-07-07T15:56:00.000+08:002008-07-07T15:56:00.000+08:00Hi durio,In the recent interview from The Standard...Hi durio,<BR/><BR/>In the recent interview from The Standard, Ng Joo Siang mentioned that the company adheres strictly to quotas and has an indepedent external auditor to check on its fishing practices; thus I do not see a danger of over-fishing.<BR/><BR/>I do not think PAH/CFG supplies those species, but will confirm again when I get PAH 2008 AR.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for visiting !<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-84977876021892725192008-07-04T01:55:00.000+08:002008-07-04T01:55:00.000+08:00i love (eating) fish, thought a little worried abo...i love (eating) fish, thought a little worried about over fishing. depleting source at one side for supply demand at another side ... i guess that's a side effect of globalization<BR/><BR/>thanks for the good writeup, though a little wordy for old man like me ;P<BR/><BR/>p.s: btw, are they supplying those blue fin tuna, Alaskan salmon as well too?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-10098030304680589402008-06-30T01:50:00.000+08:002008-06-30T01:50:00.000+08:00Hi Anonymous,I agree with you on certain points - ...Hi Anonymous,<BR/><BR/>I agree with you on certain points - like when you mentioned that PAH can pass on the cost of higher oil to customers. However, I think that in the short term demand may be adversely affected as people adjust to higher food prices, and as economies wobble precariously due to the sub-prime crisis.<BR/><BR/>Long-term wise, demand for fish should remain healthy and I am in for the long-haul, thus I am not too worried about short-term effects.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-63912433772297444902008-06-30T01:48:00.000+08:002008-06-30T01:48:00.000+08:00Hi java_guru,Thanks for your comments; they are in...Hi java_guru,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your comments; they are indeed very useful for me to reflect on.<BR/><BR/>Firstly, the reason for the "I hope" is because my view of the business is using a future-oriented point of view, rather than historical. Thus, these are the areas which I hope Management will address and the coming financial results in the next few quarters will show whether Management has indeed managed to tackle the said issues. It's more of a point by point list on how I think the company should go about maximizing shareholder value; but there is more than one way to get to Rome.<BR/><BR/>Fuel prices are rising, yes, but bunker costs seem to be under control from CFG's perspective, due to the integration of their SCM, fishing and fishmeal businesses. Moving forward, all companies will be affected by oil prices but CFG/PAH are in the business of supplying fish, which they can raise prices more or less freely as there are high barriers to entry for other competitors and food inflation will justify such an increase anyhow. Hence, I see their ability to price their products higher (without affected demand) as a hedge against the higher oil prices. Also, interest rates are actually pretty low now so PAH taking on more bank loans at this time is a good thing, rather than relying on more expensive debt which CFG issued some time back (9.25% senior notes !). Still, I do concede that higher finance costs could eat away at their net margin.<BR/><BR/>CFG and PAH are in a business which generates healthy operating cash flows, so I am not worried that they cannot service the debt. Management's track record also proves that it can use leverage to grow the business without stunting cash inflows.<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-28637871838201401902008-06-30T01:42:00.000+08:002008-06-30T01:42:00.000+08:00Hi la papillion,Thanks for the information on the ...Hi la papillion,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the information on the typo, I will try to be more careful but sometimes when typing in a haste, I forget to do some spell check !<BR/><BR/>Well I try to eat fish every other day, and I love Fish & Co because they have good baked salmon. Haha.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-76851042468401806772008-06-29T17:07:00.000+08:002008-06-29T17:07:00.000+08:00looking at the food prices increament over the pas...looking at the food prices increament over the pass months, a lot must have attributed to fuel price increase.. if so, pah biz will not be so much affected by oil price increase as it pass the bug to the consummers.. will the affluent prc people stop eating fish? will the beijing 08 in aug help in pah biz given their catch is in the biz of mcdonald fillet? the empicenter of growth is moving from west to east and prc is the locomotive.. this need fuel at whatever cost.. can't imagine fish will fly onto human dinning table.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-19111536890656842702008-06-20T09:21:00.000+08:002008-06-20T09:21:00.000+08:00MW,just an objective observation of your writeup, ...MW,<BR/><BR/>just an objective observation of your writeup, you use quite a few 'I HOPE' blah blah... indicating an extrapolation rather than a retrospective review of performance.<BR/><BR/>Also, the massive oil spike should not be underestimated. A highly leveraged biz in an env of rising fuel prices (key cost item) and interest rates spells the ingredients of a perfect storm for a capital intensive biz like this.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-86540844320996170852008-06-19T22:39:00.000+08:002008-06-19T22:39:00.000+08:00Hi mw,Learn a few things from your analysis. Most ...Hi mw,<BR/><BR/>Learn a few things from your analysis. Most notably is to analyse cash flow, which is never my strong points. <BR/><BR/>A small point to make: Under balance sheet review, there's a spelling mistake on the 3rd last line of the 2nd paragraph - 'A check on quick ration showed...' - ration should be ratio.<BR/><BR/>I realised I'm not very interested in fishes/ships, hoho!la papillionhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01372278083694506953noreply@blogger.com