tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post1004115182947724973..comments2023-10-12T21:12:41.408+08:00Comments on Value Investment - Musicwhiz's Journey: December 2011 Portfolio Review and FY 2011 Year-End ReviewMusicwhizhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comBlogger20125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-33733786727997642132012-08-23T00:56:46.027+08:002012-08-23T00:56:46.027+08:00reinvesting dividends is always a great idea.reinvesting dividends is always a great idea.jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10885060049670748739noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-73408368737877236962012-01-20T00:06:46.859+08:002012-01-20T00:06:46.859+08:00Hi FoodieFC,
Thanks for the well-wishes. Happy Ne...Hi FoodieFC,<br /><br />Thanks for the well-wishes. Happy New Year and take care too!<br /><br />Cheers,<br />MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-29244562026415845052012-01-20T00:05:49.004+08:002012-01-20T00:05:49.004+08:00Hi Hyom,
Haha I wasn't actually expecting to ...Hi Hyom,<br /><br />Haha I wasn't actually expecting to compare with hedge funds, but thanks for the statistic anyway! I think it's sufficient for me to beat the inflation (first priority) and then the index.<br /><br />Yes, I guess the so-called January Effect has caught me off-guard too, and has not thrown me much opportunity to collect shares.<br /><br />Yeah I do remember the Afralug and Value Buddies exchanges where d.o.g. took apart my Ezra, China Fishery and Swiber. He told me I made three bad choices because of poor balance sheets and cash flows, and cautioned me not to do so again. I heeded his advice seriously because I know he meant well, and his arguments made sense. The endowment effect is not strong enough in me to make me "fall in love" with my stocks and ignore sound, logical reasoning. Hence, I made the decision to overhaul my portfolio in 2009-2010. It came a little too late, sadly, if I had accumulated companies like Kingsmen, MTQ and VICOM much earlier, I would have got them at bargain basement prices. But I guess better late than never.<br /><br />I also do agree criticism on the Net is seldom constructive. In fact the forum was much better in the sense that people were civil (most of them, at least) and intelligently argued and pointed out flaws in logic and reasoning. I guess the 2008-2009 experience made me wary of people who just posted comments to take a pot shot at me, and apparently there are tons of such people.<br /><br />So I guess stopping this blog has its advantages as well. I can relax and go about my own investing without worrying too much about what others think. I have a proven methodology and exeuction style and just have to work on my analysis and decision-making.<br /><br />Wish you luck on your job search!<br /><br />Regards,<br />MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-90327667259498351402012-01-16T21:16:36.577+08:002012-01-16T21:16:36.577+08:00Noticed your last part saying that you are gg to s...Noticed your last part saying that you are gg to stop blogging at the end of this month. All the best to you!<br /><br />Huat AH!FoodieFChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11205055536110127445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-66657113162702403832012-01-15T00:14:10.806+08:002012-01-15T00:14:10.806+08:00Hi Musicwhiz,
The average Asian hedge fund lost 8...Hi Musicwhiz,<br /><br />The average Asian hedge fund lost 8.7%. However, the equity-focused hedge fund tumbled 19%. This is even worse than STI. <br /><br />http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,472937,00.html?<br /><br />So, your outperformance over the average equity hedge-fund manager in 2011 is an astounding 14%. Congratulations!<br /><br />The January effect is strong this year. STI has beaten me flat too.<br /><br />I am not so sure if it is a good thing to put up the portfolio for public scrutiny. Getting constructive feedback is not guaranteed. I remembered in 2008, there were some unkind remarks about your performance which was totally uncalled for. I do not think you can benefit much from it. Glad that you bounced back in 2009 and thrived thereafter. I think the best constructive criticism was found in Valuebuddies forum by d.o.g when he was back to his old habit of tearing apart other people's stock picks. You had the admirable attitude to take it in your stride when he did that to you. Some forummers in the old Wallstraits did not take too kindly to that. Actually, not many people take kindly to criticism if their best ideas(at least what they think) are attacked.<br /><br />When a person puts his portfolio under public scrutiny, if the stock picks are good, he is inviting competition at his own expense by giving out his best ideas for free. If the stock picks are bad, he may get sarcastic remarks like "Not everyone can be Warren Buffett". How to benefit from remarks like that? Even if he gets constructive feedback, he may not have that magnanimity to accept good advice when his best ideas is torn down humiliatingly in public.hyomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00175340583474513718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-82761793087360845232012-01-14T23:43:41.974+08:002012-01-14T23:43:41.974+08:00Hi Jojo,
Thanks for the compliment.
Sure will st...Hi Jojo,<br /><br />Thanks for the compliment.<br /><br />Sure will stay in touch.<br /><br />Regards,<br />MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-4423122500155009442012-01-14T23:33:31.806+08:002012-01-14T23:33:31.806+08:00Hi 8percentpa,
Yep you're right it's a pe...Hi 8percentpa,<br /><br />Yep you're right it's a personal decision to stop blogging. I agree that blogging at your own time, own target takes away a lot of the "stress", but it is still time-consuming and requires a lot of thinking and analysis (well, in my case particularly haha).<br /><br />I didn't know you derived so much traffic from my blog, hehe. Don't worry the link will still be active so future readers visiting would still be able to link to yours! I hope to be able to continue to attract readers long after I stop, as a testament to the quality of the content!<br /><br />Regards,<br />MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-42594234979048190542012-01-14T23:30:21.014+08:002012-01-14T23:30:21.014+08:00Hi SMOL,
Haha thanks, I really appreciate your ca...Hi SMOL,<br /><br />Haha thanks, I really appreciate your candid style of writing and admire your carefree attitude. Perhaps I take life a little too seriously at times and cannot stop to smell the roses! Thinking too much about compounding money, getting a decent return and building wealth certainly saps a lot of time and energy!<br /><br />But yes, I do hope to "blow" my loved ones and friends' minds with my career, and overall allocate more time to them in place of blogging.<br /><br />And well, assuming I do come back someday to blog, it would certainly be a new version of me - what you calll Musicwhiz Ver 2.0! Maybe even Version 3.0 perhaps? Overhauled and much improved? Haha!<br /><br />MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-89295704234529246462012-01-14T23:26:14.362+08:002012-01-14T23:26:14.362+08:00Hello hyom,
Thanks very much for the link - actua...Hello hyom,<br /><br />Thanks very much for the link - actually I had not realized that it was such a bad year for Asian Hedge Funds until I read the article! Anyhow, I do see this as an anomalous year for me in that I managed to "beat" the index by +12%. Suffice to say this kind of performance is pretty hard to match consistently, and I am certain there will be some years of severe underperformance. I am definitely not arrogant enough to think that I can repeat this easily, haha!<br /><br />So far for 2012 (as of this post), I am already trailing the index by about -6.5% as the index has surged by 5.5% but my portfolio has actually decreased by -1%. Of course, it's only January but it goes to show that performance can fluctuate wildly depending on how the index and individuals stocks move. I am heartened though, to know that the underlying businesses are still solid and that I can have a good night's sleep!<br /><br />You are right on the portfolio - not many I have seen put their portfolio up in public for scrutiny, and for so long. I have done so since 2007 for more than 4 years, and have tracked it consistently month by month while giving reasons for my BUY and SELL decisions. I would encourage others to do the same if possible too, if only for the sake of learning from mistakes and gathering constructive feedback.<br /><br />Regards,<br />MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-10495428679516267232012-01-14T23:20:38.386+08:002012-01-14T23:20:38.386+08:00Hi FFN,
You're most welcome. Yes, I will keep...Hi FFN,<br /><br />You're most welcome. Yes, I will keep the old posts here as an "archive" of sorts, for anyone who visits to read as reference. I am glad that this blog has helped many and inspired others like yourself. Yours is a great blog too, keep up the good work!<br /><br />Cheers,<br />MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-30884314010278351612012-01-14T23:19:34.670+08:002012-01-14T23:19:34.670+08:00Hi SGBluechip,
Thanks, my decision is based on no...Hi SGBluechip,<br /><br />Thanks, my decision is based on not just workload, but also the fact that I have more or less internalized the process of investing and therefore do not need to keep a "diary" of my thoughts anymore (which is pretty time-consuming!). My priorities also lie with family and my social life.<br /><br />Wish you well in your life, career and portfolio!<br /><br />Regards,<br />MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-43362601804868374842012-01-14T11:03:23.500+08:002012-01-14T11:03:23.500+08:00Hi MW
Congratulations on your performances. I'...Hi MW<br />Congratulations on your performances. I'm sure we will all miss your post. <br /><br />Please stay in touch at hey.jojos@gmail.com<br /><br />Cheers<br /><br />JojoJojohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01886063021741540868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-74503569637795375712012-01-12T00:26:17.764+08:002012-01-12T00:26:17.764+08:00MW, Sg investment blog space will never be the sam...MW, Sg investment blog space will never be the same again w/o you. <br /><br />I must say blogging less really helps. I gave up trying to maintain 1 post per week and now only post when I feel like it. It does takes away a lot of the mental stress.<br /><br />Having said that, it's your decision. Move on and have fun. I would love to keep in touch with you. Do email me ok?<br /><br />xtam.sg@gmail.com<br /><br />PS: Your blog is one of the largest traffic drawer to mine, I will be losing traffic *sob*, but, seriously, it was great, so long and thanks for all the fish!Jayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03292158817395898619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-44780352117988485022012-01-10T14:39:43.287+08:002012-01-10T14:39:43.287+08:00Hi Raymond,
Thanks for the heads up. Using the ST...Hi Raymond,<br /><br />Thanks for the heads up. Using the STI ETF would have produced about -16%, you say? That's not very much different from -17% by using the index. I think either one can be used as a proxy for the general market level, but it's interesting that the reinvested dividends only "improved" the performance by about 1-2 percentage points. Do you happen to know what the yield on STI ETF is?<br /><br />Thanks,<br />MusicwhizMusicwhizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10950754156386935254noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-72150362960002247842012-01-08T11:21:15.295+08:002012-01-08T11:21:15.295+08:00Hello Musicwhiz,
There's a season for everyth...Hello Musicwhiz,<br /><br />There's a season for everything.<br /><br />I very happy for you! At each stage of our life, our priorities and interests will change. Glad you have listened to your heart.<br /><br />Your family and friends will be glad you honour them over "others".<br /><br />And knock them dead in your career! Woo hoo FTW! (Learnt this lingo from today's Sunday Times) <br /><br />Where the wind blows I follow. I mentioned it in my non-New Year resolution post. I think you will appreciate what I tried to say - it's not meant to be taken literary ;)<br /><br />Go and enoy yourself! If and when the wind blows you back, we will benefit even more with:<br /><br />Musicwhiz 2.0!Singapore Man of Leisurehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13774067113884418001noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-87422194114257133142012-01-05T17:28:47.933+08:002012-01-05T17:28:47.933+08:00Hi Musicwhiz,
I think you have done admirably wel...Hi Musicwhiz,<br /><br />I think you have done admirably well for 2011 despite being negative for the year. If it is any consolation to you, I am also down for the year.<br /><br />Your performance is good not only because you beat the benchmark index, you beat the Asian hedge funds as well. Asian hedge funds lost an average of 8.7% in 2011 through November.<br /><br />http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/01/04/bloomberg_articlesLXB5XI0UQVI9.DTL<br /><br />It is a pity to see this blog being shut down. Nevertheless, I respect people who have the courage to put up their portfolio to scrutiny by the public. <br /><br />Hope you maintain your outperformance to the index and hedge funds in the years ahead.hyomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00175340583474513718noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-46618598199272399692012-01-02T16:04:03.074+08:002012-01-02T16:04:03.074+08:00MW, it will be sad to see you go from blogging! Ma...MW, it will be sad to see you go from blogging! Maybe you can blog less frequently and keep your posts concise to unlock more family time? Like you said, pls keep the old posts in your blog for our reference. Your posts are so informative.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-11779022550634228912012-01-01T17:12:38.563+08:002012-01-01T17:12:38.563+08:00Hey MW, why are you retiring from blogging?! Just ...Hey MW, why are you retiring from blogging?! Just blog less and not so frequent lah!<br /><br />Just a comment of using STI as a benchmark. You may want to consider using STI ETF as a benchmark as the index do not take into account dividends from companies which over the long term grossly state the actual return of STI. <br /><br />For the past 10 years, STI index value annualized return of 5% PA. If we include a modest 3% average return, even without factoring compounding, STI would have returned 8% PA.<br /><br />Just a thought.Sgbluechiphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18070778039656838451noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-70452038728146785382012-01-01T12:00:30.154+08:002012-01-01T12:00:30.154+08:00Good year for 2011 doing a whole lot better than t...Good year for 2011 doing a whole lot better than the STI.<br /><br />However, a more accurate comparison to the STI would include the dividends, and if you use that, the STI return would be -15to -16%%, a few percentage points better than what your graph had indicated.<br />My calculation was done with XIRR using the STI ETF ES3.SI, where there were 2 dividend payouts in the year and the dividends were re-invested.Raymondhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07338214996779083012noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28021668.post-21911028697409123402011-12-31T19:49:17.289+08:002011-12-31T19:49:17.289+08:00Hi, I came across your site and wasn’t able to get...Hi, I came across your site and wasn’t able to get an email address to contact you. Would you please consider adding a link to my website on your page. Please email me back. <br /> <br />Thanks!<br /><br />Harry<br />harry.roger10@gmail.comRHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03266836864567938421noreply@blogger.com